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Cicero Challenge: Strategic Foresight References List

Updated: Jan 23, 2024

"Read at every wait; read at all hours; read within leisure; read in times of labor; read as one goes in; read as one goes out. The task of the educated mind is simply put: Read to Lead.” - Marcus Cicero


These words from Marcus Cicero, the great Roman philosopher, educator, orator, ring as true today as they did over 2000 years ago. Though we live in an age of constant change, accelerating trends, technological disruption, and endless click-bait distraction, Cicero's wisdom reminds us that a vigorous intellect requires discipline, diligence, and devoted learning if we want to manage through increasingly chaotic times. 



Marcus Tullius Cicero
Marcus Tullius Cicero

I often talk about de-risking our product strategy or product roadmap, but what about de-risking and preparing for our futures? It's easy to get lost in the daily grind of KTLO, focusing solely on the next 3 to 6 months while reacting to the latest curveball that disrupts our best-laid plans. We've been intrigued by the power of futures thinking and strategic foresight and we've explored how these methods and principles can integrate with critical and human-centred design to yield exceptional results. We decided to have some fun and push ourselves further, leading us directly to……



The Cicero Challenge was 90 articles, 90 reflections, in 90 days on Futures, Strategic Foresight, and integration with Critical, Human-Centred, and Transition Design —a challenge designed to ignite our imagination through a focused, ambitious goal. Charles Plath and I chose these articles to drive our deep dive into this domain, and we'er publishing it here in case anyone wants to accept the challenge. 


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References


  1. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review. 

  2. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review. 

  3. Betty S. Flowers, (2003), The art and strategy of scenario writing. Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31 Iss 2 pp. 29 - 33 

  4. Raford, N. (2015). Design & Futures – A Process Model Integrating Design Thinking and Strategic Foresight. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(2), 91-110. 

  5. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5-25. 

  6. Gordon, T. J., Rohrbeck, R., & Bjerre, M. (2019). Escaping the faster horses trap: Bridging strategic foresight and design-based innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 145, 325-334. 

  7. Farrington, T., Henson, K., & Crews, C. (2012). The use of strategic foresight methods for ideation and portfolio management. Research-Technology Management, 55(2), 26-33. 

  8. Schwarz, J. O., Rohrbeck, R., Wach, E., & Steinert, M. (2022). How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects. Futures, 140, 103080. 

  9. Rohrbeck, R., Battistella, C., & Huizingh, E. (2015). Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 1-9. 

  10. Sakellariou, K., Alexiou, A., & Ipate-Filip, O. M. (2022). Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future. Journal of Business Research, 144, 230-242. 

  11. Hines, A. (2016). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight. Social Technologies, 6(1), 66-79. 

  12. Habegger, B. (2010). Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands. Futures, 42(1), 49-58. 

  13. Ollenburg, C. (2019). A Futures-Design-Process Model for Participatory Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(2), 5-26. 

  14. Wildman, P., & Inayatullah, S. (1996). Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future. Futures, 28(8), 723-740. 

  15. Burke, R. (2002). Organizational Future Sense: Action Learning and Futures. International Futures and Foresight Programme Working Paper, 1. 

  16. Quicksey, A. (2021). Policy Prototypes: How designers and policy practitioners can use prototypes to get feedback and iterate on policy. Medium.

  17. Muñoz, C. (2019). Closing the gap between user experience and policy design. Medium. 

  18. Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39(4), 341-362. 

  19. Klein, G. (2017). Anticipatory Thinking. Small Wars Journal. 

  20. Marshall, A. C., Wilkins, S., & Bennett, F. (2022). Story thinking for technology foresight. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1583. 

  21. World Health Organization. (2022). Imagining the future of pandemics and epidemics. 

  22. Krishnan, A., Fuller, T., Bhardwaj, A. (2022). United Nations Development Plan – Foresight Playbook. UNDP.

  23. Rohrbeck, R., & Schwarz, J. O. (2013). The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), 1593-1606. 

  24. van der Steen, M., van der Duin, P., van Essen, T., Kuosa, T., & van Nunen, J. (2022). Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust, organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy. Foresight, 14(4), 286-306. 

  25. Hines, A. (2016). Let’s talk about success: A proposed foresight outcomes framework for organizational futurists. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(3), 35-52.

  26. Iden, J., Methlie, L. B., & Christensen, G. E. (2017). The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 87-97.

  27. Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C. K. (1994). Competing for the Future. Harvard Business Review. 

  28. Simeone, L., Secundo, G., & D’Ippolito, B. (2022). The potential of design-driven foresight to support strategy articulation through experiential learning. Futures, 141, 102866. 

  29. Rohrbeck, R., Leher, L. A., Lorenz, E., & Willert, M. (2017). Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 214-224. 

  30. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K. H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures, 38(7), 723-739.

  31. Keeler, L., Feeley, M., Skirpan, M., Vervier Kassing, S., & Pierce, J. M. (2019). The Future of Aging in Smart Environments: Scenarios of 2050. Designing with and for User Communities in a More Just World. 

  32. Bisht, P. (2019). Decolonizing Futures: Exploring Storytelling as a Tool for Inclusion in Foresight. OCAD.

  33. Toyama, K. (2015). Technology as amplifier in international development. Proceedings of the 2011 iConference (pp. 75-82). 

  34. Gault, F. (2018). Defining and measuring innovation in all sectors of the economy: Policy relevance. Research Policy, 47(3), 617-622.

  35. Swart, R. J., Raskin, P., & Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global environmental change, 14(2), 137-146.

  36. Riedy, C. (2017). The critical futurist: Richard Slaughter’s foresight practice. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(2), 25-46.

  37. Guston, D. H. (2010). The anticipatory governance of emerging technologies. Journal of Korean Vacuum Society, 19(6), 432-441.

  38. Vidergor, H. (2023). Teaching futures thinking literacy and futures studies in schools. Futures, 146, 103055.

  39. Schweitzera, N., Hofmannb, R., & Meinheitc, A. (2023). Strategic customer foresight: From research to strategic decision-making using the example of highly automated vehicles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 179, 121627.

  40. MacKay, R. B., & Stoyanova, V. (2016). Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 106, 89-103.

  41. Robinson, D. K. R., Schoen, A., Bozeman, B., Joshi, S., Campbell, D., & Gabriel, M. (2021). Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 166, 120629. 

  42. Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Muench, S., & Stoermer, E. (2023). Reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040. Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Publications Office of the European Union.

  43. Bor, S., O'Shea, G., & Hakala, H. (2023). Scaling sustainable technologies by creating innovation demand-pull: Strategic actions by food producers. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 179, 121621.

  44. Geels, F. W., Berkhout, F., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2016). Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions. Nature Climate Change, 6(6), 576–583.

  45. Gaziulusoy, A. I., & Brezet, H. (2015). Design for system innovations and transitions: a conceptual framework integrating insights from sustainability science and theories of system innovations and transitions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 108, 558-568.

  46. Geels, F. W. (2004). From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy, 33(6-7), 897-920.

  47. Moradi, A., & Vagnoni, E. (2018). A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 126, 231-243.

  48. López, A. E. A., Cajiao, M. C. R., Mejía, M. P., Durán, L. F. P., & Díaz, E. E. E. (2019). Participatory design and technologies for sustainable development: an approach from action research. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(3), 303-317.

  49. Rhisiart, M., Miller, R., & Brooks, S. (2015). Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 124-133.

  50. Miller, R. (2006). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 38(4), 341-362.

  51. Kok, K., Rothman, D. S., & Patel, M. (2005). Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development. Futures, 37(10), 1205-1222.

  52. Kazemier, E. M., Damhof, L., Gulmans, J., & Cremers, P. H. (2021). Mastering futures literacy in higher education: An evaluation of learning outcomes and instructional design of a faculty development program. Futures, 132, 102804.

  53. Kelliher, A., & Byrne, D. (2015). Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences. Futures, 70, 36-47.

  54. Withycombe Keeler, L., Bernstein, M. J., & Selin, C. (2019). Intervening through futures for sustainable presents: Scenarios, sustainability, and responsible research and innovation. Socio-Technical Futures Shaping the Present, 149-166.

  55. Rhisiart, M., Störmer, E., & Daheim, C. (2016). From foresight to impact? The 2030 Future of Work scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 203-214.

  56. Kimbell, L., Durose, C., Mazé, R., & Richardson, L. (2023). Design and Policy: Current Debates and Future Directions for Research in the UK. University of the Arts London.

  57. Mastio, E., & Dovey, K. (2021). Contextual insight as an antecedent to strategic foresight. Futures, 130, 102755. 

  58. Fu, Z., & Xia, Q. (2022). Design foresight: A design approach that marries the futurization and de-futurization. International Journal of Design, 16(2), 21-36. 

  59. Houston Foresight. (2023). Strategic Foresight Towards a Preferred Future, Prepared for Seattle Public Library. University of Houston.

  60. Angheloiu, C. (2019). Design x Futures = Design Futures? Exploring how design futures can help span our imagination gap — a field guide and the #OneLess Design Fellowship as case study. Future Tense.

  61. Candy, S., & Kornet, K. (2019). Turning foresight inside out: An introduction to ethnographic experiential futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 3-26. 

  62. Burdick, A. (2019). Designing futures from the inside. Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 27-44. 

  63. Kononiuka, A., & Glińska, E. (2015). Foresight in a small enterprise: A case study. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 971-976.

  64. Silva, C., Daoust, T., van den Bosch, C., Munoz, B., Wunderlich, R., & Wyborn, C. (2021). Preparing for an uncertain future: Merging the strategic foresight toolkit with landscape modeling in northeast Minnesota’s forests. Ecology and Society, 26(3).

  65. Clemens, R. (2009). Environmental scanning and scenario planning: A 12 month perspective on applying the Viable Systems Model to developing public sector foresight. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 22(4), 249-274. 

  66. Hall, S., Workman, M., Hardy, J., Mazur, C., Anable, J., Powell, M., & Wagner, S. M. (2022). Doing business model innovation for sustainable transitions–bringing in strategic foresight and human-centered design. Energy Research & Social Science, 88, 102504.

  67. Kornet, K. W., & Candy, S. (2019). Turning foresight inside out: An introduction to ethnographic experiential futures. Journal of Futures Studies.

  68. Mortensen, J. K., Larsen, N., & Kruse, M. (2021). Barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations. Futures, 127, 102665.

  69. Dewar, J. A. (2002). Assumption-based planning: A tool for reducing avoidable surprises. Cambridge University Press.

  70. Conway, M. (2021). An integrated frame for designing conversations about futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 25(3), 25-44.

  71. von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I. L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380-393.

  72. Camrass, K. (2022). Regenerative Futures: Eight Principles for Thinking and Practice. The Regenerative Practitioner.

  73. Melnikovas, A. (2018). Towards an explicit research methodology: Adapting research onion model for futures studies. Journal of Futures Studies, 22(3), 29-40.

  74. Walls, A. (2021). The value of futures design: Pilots, experiential futures, and shaping a better world. Nordic Design Research.

  75. Barbara, A., & Ma, Y. (2018). From utopia to futurescapes: Futures literacy for next generations of architects and designers. Journal of Futures Studies, 23(2), 53-70. 

  76. Masood, J. (2023). Stories from the future-an experiential lens on the post-pandemic landscape. Journal of Futures Studies.

  77. Daffara, P. (2020). Applying the futures wheel and macrohistory to the Covid19 global pandemic. Journal of Futures Studies, 25(2), 127-136.

  78. Christophilopoulos, E. (2021). Special relativity theory expands the futures cone’s conceptualisation of the futures and the pasts. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 27-46.

  79. Gomes, N. P., & Cantú, W. A. (2021). The curiouser nature of trends: A process thesis of sociocultural trend developments in iterations of mindsets and practices. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 47-62. 

  80. Hyzy, M. (2022). Foresight is essential for product development professionals. Foresight Matters.

  81. Calof, J., & Colton, B. (2024). Developing foresight that impacts senior management decisions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 

  82. Moqaddamerad, S., & Ali, M. (2024). Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

  83. Spitz, R. (2020). The future of strategic decision-making. Journal of Future Studies, 24(3), 57-74. 

  84. Ramos, J., Uusikyla, I., & Luong, N. T. (2020). Triple-A governance: Anticipatory, agile and adaptive. Journal of Future Studies, 24(3), 75-90. 

  85. Spencer, F. (2023). The future thinker’s dilemma. Medium. https://thefuturesschool.medium.com/the-future-thinkers-dilemma-f523513fb8db

  86. Cowart, A. (2023). Emplotting durational stories of transformation: Braiding narrative trajectories and multicasting in transition design. Journal of Future Studies. 

  87. Krawczyk, E. & Slaughter, R. (2010). Like stones in the river: Understanding the nature of boundary objects in participatory futures workshops. Futures, 42(8), 839-846. 

  88. Bowers, A. P., & Glenday, P. (2021). Effective foresight by governments: An international view. OPSI.

  89. Turner, J., Snowden, D., & Thurlow, N. (2022). The substrate-independence theory: Advancing constructor theory to scaffold substrate attributes for the recursive interaction between knowledge and information. Systems, 10(2), 38. 

  90. Lampert, J., & Duffner, P. (2023). Strategic foresight 2035. 2b AHEAD ThinkTank GmbH.


 
 
 
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